WSJ Editorial Board: The Groupthink Flaws of COVID-19 Models

From the WSJ Editorial Board:

“In the presence of strong groupthink and bandwagon effects, modelers may consciously fit their predictions to what is the dominant thinking and expectations—or they may be forced to do so,” Mr. Ioannidis writes. “Forecasts may be more likely to be published or disseminated if they are more extreme.”

A surge of new infections is inevitable as states reopen, and health officials will have to watch for and contain hot spots. But the Covid models aren’t destiny, and the cost of new lockdowns is too great to sustain. We have to live with the virus risks while fortifying the health system and protecting the most vulnerable.

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