This is where we are now, in the Presidential election of 2024, on the issue of abortion

In deep-red Alabama, a pro-Trump state House district was flipped by a Democratic pro-choice woman, Marilyn Lands, who just won a special election.

The Democrats believe this is a harbinger of things to come in November. The Republicans say it was not that pro-Trump a district—the Republican who held the seat beat Marilyn Lands by 51.6% in 2022. But in this special election, Lands won by 62.2%, a swing of almost 11 points from the last race against an incumbent. In this open seat, in this special election, the Republican nominee, Madison City Councilman Teddy Powell, received a mere 32% of the vote.  That is not a landslide; it’s an earthquake with a landslide.

Within days of the Alabama victory by Lands, the Democratic party began pressing its advantage here, with this new In vitro fertilization (IVF) ad by Lucas Kunce Senator Josh Hawley.  It is a brutal ad.

Americans overwhelmingly support keeping in-vitro fertilization (IVF) legal, with 86% of those surveyed in favor, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll​.   There is no doubt ads like this will begin showing up all in other U.S. Senate and U.S. House races.

THE POLITICAL MEANING OF STATEWIDE REFERENDUMS ON ABORTION

On the national stage, the pro-abortionists have won eight statewide referendums.  (There was a time when pro-choice people did not want to be called pro-abortion. Now they prefer it.)

The pro-life/anti-abortion side has won no referendums. Zero.

These referendums mostly amend the state constitution to allow abortions — and have already in red states like OH.

As a result of these referendums, which have removed existing state restrictions of abortions in most states they have won, the number of abortions has gone up nationwide since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and allowed State limits to stand, or, in the case of these eight state referendums, remove the limits.

ACCESS TO THE DAY AFTER PILL GOES TO THE SUPREME COURT

And yesterday, the Supreme Court heard a case about the abortion pill that can be ordered through the mail and taken by women at home.

The legal basis for the case is that women who take it and have serious medical complications (apparently 0.3%) end up at the emergency room — then doctors who have moral objections to abortion, who work in the ER, are forced to treat these women, and these doctors are harmed.

So, to prevent these emergency doctors from being harmed, the U.S. Supreme Court is being asked to rule that access to the pill should be restricted.

They want the Supreme court to twist itself into a pretzel to restrict access to the pill, in other words.

It really sounds like a legal rationale women everywhere, but especially in NY, MD and FL can get behind, right?

WHEN PRO-LIFE WINS CAUSE MORE ABORTIONS

The pro-lifers keep going too far in the courts and in States legislatively and politically by passing too severe restrictions on abortion.

These restrictions end up facilitating laws or constitutional amendments, often by state referendums, which remove existing abortion limits in those states and prevent future abortion restrictions in those state.

And the net result from pro-life court wins or passing laws to restrict abortions is that these abortion limits are removed and it becomes virtually impossible to pass a law reimposing even small restrictions or limits.

And yet, the pro-life voters insist they must vote for Trump, because he will appoint judges who will restrict abortions — except when those judges restrict abortions to the point that there is a political response, broad-based and national, that has a clear voting majority both at the ballot box and to legislate, these judicial over-reaches cause not only existing abortion restrictions to be removed, but also prevents future ones.

So this is where we are now, in the Presidential election politics of 2024 on the issue of abortion.

WHY THE ABORTION ISSUE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE EVEN WORSE FOR THE GOP THAN THE 2022 MIDTERMS 

This issue is why the Dems did so well in the mid-term 2022 election — why their was no “red wave,” and the Republicans ended up with a four seat majority in the House.

It is the main reason why I was predicting the Dems would keep the House — they lost it by four seats — but my prediction was 99% correct since there are 435 House seats total.  Less than three days before the mid-term election, House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy was predicting a +27 seat majority — at the minimum — to +42 Republican seat majority, wrong by an order of magnitude far higher than I.

And as bad as the mid-term elections were for Republicans, at least they did not have the leader of their party directly identified with the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and put the states in charge of restricting or not restricting abortion.

But in the Presidential election of 2024, the Republican nominee is not directly linked to case that overturned Roe v. Wade, right?

Uh, no.

In Biden’s “These Guys” ad, Trump is bragging on tape that he got rid of Roe v. Wade — he uses the those words, that he “got rid of Roe v. Wade.”

The Dems also have Trump on video saying women should be prosecuted, if they have an abortion in states where or when it’s banned.

This is one of several reasons, one of the two most important reasons, why Biden is going to win by a landslide.

On election day this year, statewide referendums on abortion will be on the ballot Nov. 5th in Florida, New York and Maryland.

Florida’s statewide 6 week ban on abortion, which was just lowered from 15 weeks, will be removed if the referendum wins, since the referendum will allow abortions up to fetal viability — 24 weeks.

And each of the pro-choice referendums will win, in Maryland, New York and Florida, because there is a pro-choice majority at the ballot box, red state or not.

The win in Florida could cause both Senator Rick Scott and Trump to lose Florida, and if Trump loses Florida he loses the election.

Then, Biden will win by a landslide.

Am I actually saying Biden will win by a landslide?

Yes.

Everyone will say but abortion is only one factor in an election of unknowns, including an independent candidate like RFK, Jr.

I understand all that — Trump’s court cases, possibly Cheney running, RFK, Jr. all of it.  (Women will not waste their vote on RFK, Jr., knowing what is at stake, is my guess, they will pull for Biden.)

After all of it, Biden still wins by a landslide.

P.S. Weeks after writing this, Trump decided to forsake a national abortion ban and back the states as being the ones who set the abortion rules inside their border.  Then, one day after Trump made his big abortion pivot, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that a 1864 banning all abortions, except to save the life of the mother, could be enforced — effectively shutting down abortions in Arizona.

In Arizona, Biden wins will be the headline on Nov 6th.

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