Thing One about a Pandemic: Everyone gets Infected

Those lamenting the Americans who haven’t had their partial or full vaccination for Covid, should stop worrying.

Nature will vaccinate those who do not want to be vaccinated by infecting them with the Delta variant.

The Delta variant has an RO factor of between 5 and 8.  RO is the scientific measurement of the degree of infectiousness of a virus. Smallpox, the most infectious disease that is widescreen in the human herd, has an RO factor of 5.

Smallpox is more infectious than you can imagine.

If someone with smallpox walks into a room with thirty people in it and stays in that room for less than one minute, everyone in that room will be infected.

The specific scientific explanation is that those infected with smallpox or the Delta variant have a massive viral load, and they are spewing it in massive quantities to others.

Simply put, there is no stopping a virus with a RO factor of 5 or higher from infecting just about everyone.

Maskie-mask-mask face or not, RO +5 is the T-Rex of infectious viruses, it is the apex predator of infectious viruses.

Thing one about a pandemic is that everyone will be infected, either the easy way, with a vaccine, or the natural way, by being infected.

For some, the natural way will be the hard way: hospitalization, ventilator, and potentially, death.

But for the vast majority, for slightly less than (about) 90%-ish of those naturally infected, they will not have serious or severe symptoms.

While those laying in the hospital with Covid can be in denial that they have it (see this report) or curse themselves for being “too busy” to be vaccinated or harbor some fears about the vaccine, whether they like it or not, if they survive, one way or another, either by vaccine or natural infection, everyone will have Covid anti-bodies.

Andrew Sullivan, who is vaccinated, has a more nuanced and textured (and longer) version of this message, in his piece titled “Let It Rip” published in his oasis of editor less freedom, on substack.

Yes, I have had the vaccine shots, both Moderna shots.  Plus, I was hospitalized for a week with Covid over Christmas.

Simply put, it appears that those who vaccinate are 25 times less likely to be hospitalized or die, and the risk of infection is 8 times lower, according to the CDC.

Having said that, vaccines are a static defense, like the Maginot Line.  And viruses are dynamic like the German Army that went through the Ardennes forest to defeat the Maginot Line, by going around it.

And the fact that the study the CDC released Friday found that three-quarters of those infected with the Delta variant at a gathering in Massachusetts had been vaccinated twice, may mean the Delta version of Covid is its answer to the vaccine, where the virus dynamically changes to survive and defeat our first static (vaccine) defense:

During July 2021, 469 cases of COVID-19 associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, were identified among Massachusetts residents; vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents was 69%. Approximately three-quarters (346; 74%) of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons (those who had completed a 2-dose course of mRNA vaccine [Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna] or had received a single dose of Janssen [Johnson & Johnson] vaccine ≥14 days before exposure).

A colleague’s wife is a physician in a southern California hospital.  She told him that 40% of the patients in the hospital with Covid were vaccinated with two shots.

This lays bare the scientific inaccuracy of op-eds that push this media favorite: the unvaccinated are ruining it for the rest of us.

And remember, the static defense offered by vaccines is based on Covid as it existed in 2020.

At least human beings have a natural dynamic immune system that adjusts on the fly, to new threats.

So, there is that.

And the survival imperative of the virus to continually infect humans, so it can live, will ensure its continued mutations and on-going human infections to defeat our vaccines — to wit, meet the C.37, aka the Lambda variant (now in the U.S.) that is “vaccine-resistant.”

It’s the law of nature.

If you think this means the pandemic will roll on, I agree and am now thinking it will last well into 2023.

 

 

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  1. September 15, 2021

    […] six weeks ago, I wrote that I thought we’d be in the throws of the vaccine-resistant variant Lambda being the […]

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