Why the U.S. Supreme Court will Wait Until June 27th to Release its Presidential Immunity Decision

The reason the U.S. Supreme Court is waiting so long to release its decision on Presidential immunity is simple: Thomas and other justices, perhaps Alito and Kavanaugh, are playing eat the clock to prevent any further prosecutions of Trump from going to trial before the November elections.

Essentially, Trump-sympathetic members of the Supreme Court are delaying the release of their decision on whether Trump or any other President stands trial for any crimes, or whether the President enjoys immunity from prosecution, and if the President has immunity, how much immunity does he have, and for what specific actions.

For my assessment of the Supreme Court’s delay in this decision to be true, the U.S. Supreme Court must rule that Trump can be tried.

If the delay in the immunity decision indicates the Court’s ruling that Trump can be tried in the outstanding cases, including the classified document stash case in Mara-Largo, FL; his post-2022 election actions in Georgia; and his charges related to 1/6 in Washington, D.C., then it is likely that Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s probing questions about the nature of the charges against Trump for 1/6 are the key to understanding how the Court will rule.

Trump’s lawyer answered Coney Barrett and asserted that while all the 1/6 charges are private actions by the President, not public, Trump should be immune from private and public acts at the same time he or anyone else is President.

It seems likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will use this distinction, more or less, to decide whether the President has immunity from prosecution for public acts but not private ones.

Therefore, the longer the Supreme Court waits to issue its decision on Trump and Presidential immunity, the more likely the Court has ruled that Trump can stand trial in Washington, D.C., Florida, and Georgia or in other jurisdictions for any future or new and related charges that will be filed against Trump.

If the Supreme Court has decided Trump can be tried, the question about if or when or whether any of these cases against Trump go to trial before the election, is a matter of scheduling by the Judges overseeing these cases.

But my guess is the Supremes are waiting until the last possible moment they can release the decision, near the end of the last week in June (the Supreme Court term official ends on the last day of June,  which is a Sunday, the 30th this year).

They are waiting as long as possible, to repeat myself, because they are going to allow Trump to be tried in all jurisdictions.

Buckle up buttercup, there may be at least one more trial of Trump before the election.

Most lawyers, both Republican and Democratic, I’ve spoken with do not believe there will be enough time to try Trump in any of these cases.

Time will tell.

Update on 6/17/24: since the First Biden – Trump Presidential Debate is Thursday June 27th the immunity decision may be further delayed until the 28th.

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