The New U.S. House Math Once Rep. Gallagher Resigns — which could be as early as April 19th

As Politico and many others have reported, Speaker Johnson’s margin drops to one vote as Gallagher heads for an early exit.

Once Gallagher leaves  (he has decided to exit the House on April 19th), this will be the new U.S. House math, post-Rep. Gallagher — (Rep. Buck left today):

The U.S. House is now 218 + 213 + 4 vacancies = 435.

Once Gallagher resigns, it’s 217 GOP + 213 Dem + 5 vacancies = 435.

430 votes divided by two equals 215 to win a vote, assuming all 430 are voting.

If one GOP votes with Dems, it’s 216 to 214.

If two Republicans vote with the Democrats, the total will be 215 for the Democrats and 215 for the Republicans—a tie means the measure fails.

So, this is the new U.S. House math — Speaker Johnson can only lose one GOP vote in a House floor vote, or it’s a tie, and the measure fails on the House floor.

If three Republicans are absent or don’t vote, the GOP will win by 214 to 213, assuming everyone else votes.

If four GOP are absent, it’s 213 to 213, a tie — the measure fails, assuming everyone else votes.

 

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