The Great Scientific Significance of the Wuhan Antibody and Virus Testing Results of the Crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt — CVN-71April 4, 2020
The great Captain of the USS Theodore Roosevelt — CVN-71 — Navy Capt. Brett Crozier, forced action by sending a letter to so many recipients that it was bound to leak.
Sometimes, the best commanders are the ones that are insubordinate, if, in their view, it will accomplish the mission.
Intended or not, the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt has received the attention, in detail, of the entire White House coronavirus task force.
And Dr. Deborah Brix is not going to let this crisis go to waste.
As background, there is general consensus across the globe from all those who model pandemics that once one percent of a country’s population is infected, it’s just a matter of time (how long that time depends on the country and the type and infectious rate of the virus) before the rest of the population is infected.
In other words, it is no longer a question of if the population is infected, it’s a question of when.
And the single biggest question about how much of the U.S. population has been infected (they may have been asymptomatic or they may have had mild symptoms) comes down to this unknown number: what is the ratio of known infected to unknown infected?
One Harvard professor says there are 50 infected for every known positive test result.
I assume (conservatively) that the 80% of mild symptoms (that includes the 30% to 75% who are infected but have no symptoms ever) are essentially not tested. I assume that only the 20% who are severely ill, are tested.
But, my estimate is off by ten times, according to Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health professor Marc Lipsitch.
It is my great hope that by Sunday or Monday, the White House task force makes the test results of the USS Theodore Roosevelt public.
Among the ship’s crew we will know what percentage:
- was infected;
- have antibodies;
- are asymptomatic carriers — the ultimate superspreader;
- are pre-symptomatic.
Over time, we will know the strain of the virus that infected the crew, where it is from, where it came aboard, and how long it was aboard.
We will have a controlled population where the true incubation period to symptoms is revealed.
Also, as Dr. Brix said April 3, 2020, she can determine if there is a logarithmic relationship between the age of the person and the likelihood of infection, symptoms or death (clearly, there is a large amount of evidence this is the case.)
But ultimately, we will have a much better sense of the number of unknown infecteds per known infected, which should be partially revealed by the test results of the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt.