Is Elizabeth Warren the Hillary Clinton of 2020?
The voters backing Elizabeth Warren are highly educated, predominately women and more white than the working class, less white, more diverse Biden and Sanders voters.
In other words, Elizabeth Warren is the Hillary Clinton of 2020.
And the appeal of the Warren to the Coastal Elites of the Democratic party must be strong — we can have a woman without all of the Hillary Clinton negatives.
The real question is will the Democratic primary voters risk putting up a woman against Trump?
One factor will be Warren’s poor performance among African American voters — just like Hillary Clinton. This will play a decisive role in national polls and the primaries after predominately white Iowa and New Hampshire contests.
One indication that Biden voters have made up their mind about a woman leading the ticket is that Sanders is the most popular second choice for Biden voters.
If Elizabeth Warren is the Hillary Clinton of 2020, does Warren’s liberal ideology prevent her from duplicating the Clinton coalition of 2016 to win the Dem primary, especially since Biden has taken the moderate mantle?
Or, has the Dem party swung so far left that it is possible for Warren to mimic the Hillary coalition, even though Warren is much more liberal?
My guess is that Biden wins the nomination, but if his campaign collapses, then Sanders wins the nomination, because of Sander’s higher support among African American voters and because of the severe psychological trauma for Dem voters caused by Hillary’s defeat. It is not something the Dem primary voters can or will forget, or easily move past.