If Washington State Hospitals Reach Saturation Point of Wuhan Virus Cases — Nurses have Treatment Instructions for Anyone 65 or Older to Receive Palliative Care

The Italian doctor who came home for the first time in 21 days said it to the NYT in a podcast.  If you want to avoid making impossible terrible decisions about who gets the care and who does not, the transmission of the virus must stop.  Given its transmission vector is like that of influenza, this means stopping commerce and contact with others.

Here is the report of the Washington State, hospital saturation point, treatment protocol:

After a few days of admitting the Tsunami of COVID patients, the hospitals can no longer treat everyone so they are forced to make impossibly difficult decisions. The first mitigation protocol shared by nurses to whom I spoke (off the record, all five were not supposed to be talking to me) is as the COVID volume spikes, they are forced to only provide palliative care to those 65 and older. This is because they don’t have enough people, beds, time, or other medical resources so they have to make hard choices based on who is most likely to recover. This is a battlefield medical response protocol.

And below, from the Medium by Jason Warner, is much too long, and overly repetitive.

So below, I’ve summarized and quoted the key points.

Warner projects the various percentages of the population infected and the associated death rate.

There is one thing about pandemic math, it is exponential growth.

But the main thing about pandemic math is that once 1% of the population is infected, quarantine, self-quarantine and social distancing will fail.

The 1% barrier means all but the most vigilant, most isolated will be infected.

Warner projects 1% of the U.S. population will be infected at the end of the second week of April, assuming further social distancing:

The blue Tsunami Wave is the future growth of COVID infections, over the coming weeks, adjusted for daily growth rate since we have done some social distancing already starting a few days ago. So the rate of infection will grow at a slower rate next from March 23 through the 31st and even slower the following week. The rate of infection slows down but we don’t know how much because we do not have COVID testing to confirm if our current social distancing strategy is working.

The big problem that is illustrated in the graph below: If we don’t start today 0.1% or 350,000 Americans will be infected by the second week of April (where the arrow is). And more after that. And we know from the Orange Tsunami Math Exercise that it will be unbearable for your community to bear.

I can’t sugarcoat the table below for you: This is the modeled count of deaths of Americans, broken out by age group since we know the mortality rate varies by age. Note that the count of dead Americans is in thousands: So 500 = 500,000 and 1,000 equals 1 million. So 1,382 equals 1 million, three hundred eighty-two thousand deaths. The bottom line: if we take action as described at the end of the post, millions more Americans will die from COVID19. This is not hype. Its math.

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