If Reports that Sinema’s Ask is to Keep the Carried Interest Provision Are True, Reconciliation will Pass the Senate Soon

If this report from Business Insider, titled Kyrsten Sinema reportedly wants to block Democrats from narrowing the carried interest loophole benefiting rich investors, is accurate, then the Dem reconciliation bill will pass the Senate soon because Senators want to — no, need to — go home and campaign.  (The August Senate recess is supposed to begin Friday.)

While Sen. Manchin has said he has to have the carried interest provision, he will have no choice but to take it so that Reconciliation can pass, and he gets his pipeline for West Virgina.

So, after the parliamentarian finishes the ‘Byrd bath’ (say, Thursday or Friday) the Senate moves to proceed to the Reconciliation bill, has vote-a-rama and Reconciliation passes, say, Sunday.

Then, the House would come back from recess early next week, pass Reconciliation and send it to President Biden for his signature.

12 Hours or more after I posted the blog above, these three things happened:

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