Fifth Circuit Court ObamaCare Decision and Talking Points — What Could Come Next

You can find the decision here.

Key Talking point: Patients on Affordable Care Act plans will not face any immediate changes to their health coverage.

Super Punt: The Fifth Circuit Court struck the individual mandate and then punted the case back to the District Court for them to decide if the entire law falls or which parts remain, without the mandate.

Other relevant talking points:

  • In the near term and in general, the court ruling does not have any immediate impact.  Nothing changes for people enrolled in coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
  • But the Fifth Circuit decision means that regardless of what the District Court decides about which parts of the law remain if any, the individual mandate will have to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court.  If the Supreme Court upholds the Fifth Circuit decision to strike the mandate, the Supreme Court will cause Congress to respond legislatively.  This presents a must pass health care legislative opportunity.
  • If the lower court concludes that since the mandate is gone, the entire law falls, and then the Fifth Circuit Court agrees, and then, the Supreme Court declines to hear the case because they agree, then Congress will be forced to Act to restore the subsidies. Again, this presents a must pass health care legislative opportunity.
  • The only way Congress will not be forced to act is if the Supreme Court reverses the Fifth Circuit Court decision on the mandate and upholds the ACA, meaning the law does not fall, because the mandate does not fall.

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