Despite Warren and Sanders M4A Poll Power, Support for the Public Option is Higher than Polls Show
The chart below represents an interesting exercise to discern an indication of political risk.
What is the total support for leading Democratic candidates who support Medicare if you want it (the public option) vs. Medicare for All (right now, for everyone.)
The chart below is a sum of the average poll number support for each candidate as published on RealClearPolitics, as of November 5, 2019.
It turns out, the sum of the support for Medicare for All, right now, for everyone, exceeds the support of Medicare if you want it in every state, and nationally, except in South Carolina.
Now there are plenty of reasons this method of measuring political risk could be misconstrued, principally among them that we are ascribing the strength of each candidate to their support for one single policy they back.
However, this is merely a tool, an indication among all the others to measure political risk, specifically among Democrats who are going to participate in the Iowa caucuses or vote in NH, NV or SC and through the national polling and betting odds, it has a national look too.
The most interesting row of the graph is the last one, the sum of both those who support Medicare if you want it plus those who support Medicare for All. The key take away from this line is that it is the most accurate representation of the support for Medicare if you want it, the Public Option. The reason is that those who want Medicare for All will agree to the Public Option since they will be able to have Medicare, and their friends and family will too, notwithstanding their preference is to have M4A for everybody.
|Leading Candidates Who Support |
for M4A vs. Public Option
|Biden + Buttigieg (Public Option)||32.7||29.7||30.8||39.0||36.4||38.2|
|Warren + Sanders (M4A right now)||38.6||45.0||38.0||28.6||38.6||53.6|
|Leading Candidate Support |
for M4A + Public Option
Therefore, what the chart really shows is the support for the Public Option is higher than it seems.
Therefore, the public option will be the most likely result if a Democrat wins the White House, and the Dems take the Senate and kill the filibuster.
The public option is a slower road to Medicare for All since private insurers cannot compete on price with government-subsidized Medicare. And the price of their health coverage will be the biggest determining factor for those who pick Medicare vs. staying with their private plan.