Vox: Bates Theorem and Why Wuhan Virus Infection Rates in a Local Area that Exceed 10% Are More Accurate

In a nutshell, Bates Theorem shows that areas like New York City with antibody testing that shows 24% of the population has Wuhan virus antibodies are 95% accurate test results, while areas with a small, say 1% infection, yield far, far less accurate antibody test results — in the 50% accuracy range.  Therefore, the higher the percentage of antibodies found, the more accurate the test results are and should be acknowledged as such — see chart from VOX below.

But the White House Coronavirus Task Force refuses to acknowledge the high infection rates found in Massachusetts, New York City, California and other places, which if acknowledged, and we now know more these results are far, far more accurate than the dismissive attitude out of the WH Coronavirus Task Force– the question is why do they refuse to acknowledge these results and the lower mortality rate?

From Vox:

Plot showing the performance of a hypothetical antibody test for Covid-19

As Vox puts it:

At the same time, as the prevalence rate increases, so does the likelihood of a correct result. If 10 percent of people in a population are infected, a positive test result is more than 90 percent likely to mean that antibodies are truly present.

“[W]hether 2% or 20% of tests come back positive makes a huge difference in how confident we are in any individual positive result being correct,” said Zachary Binney, an epidemiologist at Emory University, in an email. “A bit weird-feeling, I know, but it’s the truth.”

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