An Italian study published yesterday suggests that between 50 percent and 75 percent of those infected show no symptoms

From The Spectator:

Britain is now locked down for at least three weeks, but could the government’s original policy of relying on herd immunity have been right all along? That is the inference of a team of epidemiologists from Oxford University, whose modeling produces remarkably different results from that of Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College. It was the Imperial College model which, on Monday March 16 which led to the dramatic U-turn, and the government’s adoption of a complete suppression policy for COVID-19.

Like everything being published about coronavirus at the moment, the Oxford study comes with a health warning.

It has not yet been peer-reviewed and, like all form of modeling, it relies on the quality of the data and assumptions which are fed into it. But if it is anywhere close to reflecting the truth, it raises questions about a policy of seeking to suppress COVID-19, with all the lockdowns and economic damage which comes with it. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 — the virus which causes COVID-19 — may be already so established in the population that it might be pointless trying to contain it.

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