Your Election Night Guide: States to Watch, and My Prediction

The big trend in this election is the erosion of support for Obama in key “safe” blue states, specifically in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

My impression of the conventional wisdom of the most reasonable of the mainstream media is contained in this map, it shows how David Frum at the Daily Beast views the likely electoral map outcome:

In the map above, the margin of an Obama victory is a mere five electoral votes, and a Romney loss is by a mere 7 electoral votes. Obviously, this a huge difference from the massive Obama victory in 2008.

To see the erosion in Obama support since the beginning of this campaign, compare the above map from the Daily Beast to the RealClearPolitics map here. The vast majority of the gray toss up states used to be blue, and have in the last three weeks gone from blue to gray.

While the polls that are on the RealClearPolitics site in most of the toss up states show a inside-the-margin-of-error advantage for Obama, it is also true that most of these polls are weighted with Democratic turnout that is two or three or four points higher than is reasonable. The reality is that these states are tied or up slightly for Romney. Given these now gray states used to be blue, it is a clear indication that Obama is losing his base, and a Romney victory is at hand.

In short, if Romney wins these four states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio, he will win. We should have the results of these state’s by between 11 PM and midnight tonight.

Equally revealing will be if Obama loses any of the following states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota, then Obama will lose — not specifically because any of these states will provide the key and absolute electoral vote count difference, but because if these “safe” blue states go red, it means the Dem’s base simply did not show up at the polls; meaning, I expect the most other close states — Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Colorado — to go red as well.

The results for the formerly safe blue states that are now in play — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota — should also be known by between 11 PM and midnight.

By the start of November 7th, we will know who won and who lost.

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