Why the Last Men Standing will be Sanders and Bloomberg
On January 6, 2020, I predicted: “Sanders wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.”
My prediction of Sanders defeating Biden in the first three states still stands.
Further, once the Democratic Party establishment realizes that Biden or any of the other candidates cannot stop Sanders, I concluded the DEMpire will pivot to support Bloomberg.
Clearly, Bloomberg has the stamina and the money to last past South Carolina.
Warren and the others, probably not. Biden, perhaps.
Now, I predict Sanders will win South Carolina. Sander’s Killer Mike and Carli B strategy to expand his non-white voter base — with the omnipresence of AOC at Sanders’ side — appears to be working: CNN’s most recent poll shows Sanders now has the most non-white support of all Democratic primary candidates.
Under these circumstances, but for Bloomberg, Sanders would take the Dem nomination.
The DEMpire will, therefore, pivot to back Bloomberg — not because he is perfect, but mostly because he’s not Sanders.
Then, it will be a Sanders-Bloomberg slog-fest through to the convention, with Bloomberg running ads in every single state and Sanders holding events and speeches in every single state — all while Sanders will run fewer ads than the carpet-bombing ad campaign that Bloomberg is now running in every single post-South Carolina state.
The best illustration of what I mean by “every single post-South Carolina state,” is what Bloomberg is doing in Connecticut. If you are non-white or a Millenial in Connecticut, you have been seeing Bloomberg ads every single time you open your internet browser, since mid-Dec. 2019.
The Connecticut primary is April 28th, 2020. Putting up paid ads beginning four a half months prior to the Presidential primary election, and keeping those ads up non-stop, is simply not done. It is not done, because no campaign has the funds to do it, except Bloomberg.
But Bloomberg has more than just money. He has his $200 million big data ad targeting machine, which tells Bloomberg’s campaign the best people to target with his ads, and then, also, the best place to put his digital ads — on what computer, on what website, imbedded in which show.
And as Bloomberg’s rise in the polls shows, this constant ad repetition, big data targeting system is working — slowly and steadily — at least nationally.
If you are a white boomer in Connecticut, especially a male who is not a Democrat, you will not ever see a Bloomberg ad on your computer. You will be blissfully unaware of the massive campaign Bloomberg has underway. And there is no media organization that will do a poll highlighting where voters are in Connecticut to show Bloomberg’s progress. But Bloomberg is polling. He knows.
So, post-South Carolina, the Sanders-Bloomberg battle will be epic and take on tones of the Sanders-Clinton battle.
Ultimately, voters will decide on Super Tuesday the amount of support they give each candidate. This is the first time Bloomberg will be on the ballot. The results will illustrate the delegates Bloomberg will have (or not) at the convention.
And as long as Bloomberg can build his support to at least 15% or more in the Super Tuesday states on March 3rd, Bloomberg will arrive at the Dem convention with delegates in hand. The more delegates he has, the more leverage he has.
Right now, the biggest prize on Super Tuesday is California. Today, Bloomberg has risen to fifth place, at 4.7% to Sanders’ first place, at 24%. In Texas, Bloomberg in 4th place, having passed Mayor Pete who’s in 5th. Today, Bloomberg is at 7% in Texas.
Assuming the collapse of the Biden campaign after four consecutive losses in the first four states, the split between Sanders and Bloomberg of the Biden voters will be very interesting indeed.
One last point, even if Biden lasts through Super Tuesday, his presence will not help Bloomberg. Getting Biden out of the primary sooner than later is definitely in Bloomberg’s interest.
And the question of how long Biden can last having lost the first four states will be the biggest question for securing the Democratic Presidential nomination.
Ultimately, though, my sense is that the Democratic party will end up nominating Sanders.