If Cheney Runs, Trump Can’t Win

In general, the way to think about Liz Cheney’s candidacy is that she is providing a safe harbor for Republican voters who cannot vote for Trump and will not vote for Biden.

This is not about Liz Cheney’s popularity (whatever her negatives are, Trump’s are higher.)

This is about the voters the Wall Street Journal details here, who will not vote for Donald Trump.

That total is well into the double digits of the total percentage of Republican voters.

And the simple, clear news is that Donald Trump can not win a general election without these Republicans.

Now, the Trump campaign will say they are making up these numbers with inroads in the Black and Hispanic communities.

Regarding the absolute number of voters, the loss of white suburban dwarfs any gains in the Trump vote from black and Latino voters.

Now, if there is no place to go — if Cheney does not run, then Trump would pick up some of these voters because they can’t vote for Trump or Biden.

Cheney’s presence on the ballot provides the option to still vote Republican, but not for Trump, removing them of the decision to vote for Biden, or not.

Cheney’s presence will subtract one vote from Trump’s vote total for every Republican who votes for Cheney.

If Cheney picks up any amount more than 5 percent of the Republican vote in any vital state, Trump cannot win.

And every state is vital, given the closeness of the election.

And the closer Trump and Biden are, the fewer Republican votes Cheney needs to prevent Trump from winning — which is the point of those Republicans who can’t vote for Trump, they do not want him to win.

In other words, for Republicans who can’t vote for Trump or Biden, Cheney is a perfect landing spot, if she decides to run.

It is very likely that 5% of the vote is the absolute floor of the Republican vote total Cheney will receive.

In most states, it will likely be more than double that, between 10% and 15% of the total Republican vote.

Given the closeness of the election and that the lioness share of Cheney’s votes will be Republican — mainly because her pro-life stance will repel Democratic voters — her presence in the race will cause Trump to lose.

Many believe it is too hard to get on State’s ballots as an independent, so Cheney’s run won’t amount to much because she won’t be on the ballot in many states.

In fact, it is not difficult as people believe to be an independent candidate for President and be on the ballot in most states.

Most state’s deadlines are not until early August, and there are a relatively small number of signatures needed in most states.

Here is the list of states and their requirements to be on the ballot as an independent candidate for President — the only State deadline that has passed is Hawaii’s — no big deal.

In fact, if Liz Cheney was on just half the State ballots, including some in the battleground states, that would be enough to cost Trump the election.

Trumpets Will Only Vote for Trump

Trump supporters may wail and moan about party — GOP — unity, and the need to all Republicans to vote for Trump.

But it is really more Trump smoke and mirrors.

Why?

Polling shows Trump supporters want all Republicans to back Trump, while Trump supporters will not vote for another Republican.

FOUR EXAMPLES BY STATE

Or even if she was on a handful, three or four, she could keep Trump from being President — in states like FL, AR, NV, MI, OH, PA or VA — or even a subset of these eight states.

In Florida, for example, Trump’s 2024 Presidential primary total with no opponents was 81.2%, down from 93% in 2000.  Cheney, in Florida, has a decent shot at garnering more than a quarter of the 18.8% of Republicans who did not vote for Trump in Florida’s primary — and could earn a third to half of these votes.  This would mean Liz Cheney would win between 6.2% and 9.4% of the GOP vote  — effectively denying Trump victory in Florida.

In Arizona’s 2024 Presidential primary, Trump received 78.7% of the GOP vote,.  If Cheney ran, 21.3% of Republicans would be up for grabs and if she won half or a third of those GOP voters, she would take between 7% and 11% of the GOP vote in Arizona and  cause Trump to lose.

In Ohio’s 2024 Presidential primary, Trump received 79.2% of the GOP vote. If Cheney ran, 20.8% of Republicans would be looking at voting for Cheney.  If she won a third or half of those votes, she would win between 6.9% and 10.4% of the GOP vote in Ohio, denying Trump the Presidency.

In Michigan’s 2024 Presidential primary, Trump received 68.1% of the GOP vote.  If Cheney ran, 31.9% of the GOP vote could be hers to earn.  If she won a third to a half of those voters, then Cheney would deny Trump Michigan by getting between 10.6% and 15.4% of the Michigan GOP vote, likely ending Trump’s chances of winning the White House.

THE CHERRY ON TOP (sometimes you don’t get the cherry, even though you really want the cherry)

Just imagine, you know, as a thought experiment, that the Supreme Court rules Donald Trump does not have immunity around his actions leading up to, and on January 6th.

OK, so there is a decent chance of that ruling.

That would leave him open to prosecution for his 1/6 and related actions, including, potentially, the charge of insurrection.

Imagine Trump being indicted, tried and convicted for insurrection in a federal court, after the Supreme Court immunity case, but before the November 5th election date.

Most believe Trump has not been indicted for insurrection because the special prosecutor, Jack Smith, does not believe that he could win, because he does not have the proof to convict Trump.  Therefore, these people believe Trump is innocent, because he has not been indicted.

Others believe that the prosecutors do not have time to convict Trump prior to the election, even if he is indicted and the charging documents are amended to include insurrection.

But, if all of that did happen, the reality is that states would be falling all over themselves, post Trump conviction of insurrection in federal court, to throw Trump off the ballot, leaving Cheney the only Republican to vote for in those states where she was on the ballot and Trump was not.

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