Why Liz Cheney is Making Washington Insiders Nervous — Even those who Want Trump to Lose
This is clear enough: there is an identifiable group of Republicans who cannot vote for Trump, but nor can they vote for President Biden.
Some Republicans, especially those pro-Trump or anti-Liz Cheney, see the world in black and white, which leads them to believe Liz Cheney will take votes from Biden.
And I’m sure she will, but not nearly as many as Republican votes who, all things being equal, couldn’t vote for Biden but without Cheney in the race, would otherwise hold their nose and vote for Trump.
There are many such Republicans, despite the pro-Trumpers insisting otherwise.
Even the Republicans who tell other Republicans that Cheney is not a real Republican (she is) — will not stop Republicans from voting for Cheney.
The Example of Palin’s Defeat
Sarah Palin lost in Alaska because there were a bunch of Republicans who could not vote for Palin’s Democratic opponent but also could not vote for Palin — we know the specific vote totals because Alaska’s Ranked Choice Voting system revealed them.
These anti-Palin GOP voters could and did vote for the other Republican running against Palin. And while that Republican lost, those votes for the GOP alternative denied Palin of victory.
Democrats and Republicans alike are eyeing the No Name movement, RFK Jr’s independent run, and Liz Cheney’s possible run for President, and it is making them nervous.
Some Democrats worry that Cheney will pull Democratic votes, but Cheney is very pro-life, so I don’t see many anti-Trump Democrats voting for Cheney.
What if what Cheney said is true: “I don’t know if our party can be saved. We may need to build a new party.” Then, Cheney could be giving birth to a party that represents the de facto majority in the U.S. House, those Republicans and Democrats who voted to raise the debt limit and voted for the two CRs that kept the government open.
It creates uncertainty, and power does not like uncertainty.
But these third-party issues are being conflated with the impact on Trump’s chances to win the Presidency if Cheney runs.
If she runs as an independent, there is no doubt she will take a percentage of Trump’s votes, which will be more than enough to ensure he is never president again.