Using Offical Figures, Mortality Rate of the Chinese Virus is Holding at 2%

98% of those infected with the new Chinese virus, 2019-nCOV, survive.

Using official figures that have an unknown, but have a potentially massive margin of error — in other words, using figures that are known to be incorrect — the mortality rate of the new Chinese virus is 2%.

There are a number of reasons the number of infected is known to be far lower than is being reported:

  • patients who have mild symptoms and do not report themselves;
  • a shortage of test kits to confirm the presence of the virus; and
  • test kits that have proven to show false-negative results — meaning some times patients who are known to be infected with the virus, have had a negative test result.

Here is how the Associated Press quoted the United Nations World Health Organization, about the number of infected but uncounted patients:

The death rate in China is falling, but the number of confirmed cases will keep growing because thousands of specimens from suspected cases have yet to be tested, WHO’s Galea said.

“The case fatality ratio is settling out at a much lower level than we were reporting three, now four, weeks ago,” he said.

Using updated figures from Bloomberg’s article “What is Coronavirus: Mapping Pneumonia-like Respiratory Illness in China and Globally,” the virus mortality rate is:

Infected: 14,553

Dead: 305

Morality rate: 305/14,553 x 100 = 2.08%

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