Trend? Yesterday, in a Deep Red Ohio Special Election for a U.S. House Seat, the GOP Candidate Underperformed by 20 Points, and in the Last Swing District Special U.S. House Election in NY, the GOP Underperformed by 16 points

In the last two special U.S. House elections, in both cases where a Republican Congressman left their seat — Santos from Long Island, NY, was expelled from the House and another, a Republican from Ohio who resigned — the average underperformance by the GOP in the special elections in both seats was 18 points.

By specifically comparing the margin of victory of the Republican leaving the seat to the special election winner’s vote total, it becomes clear how well the winner performed in relation to the Republican who previously held the seat.

Former Rep. Santos (R-NY) took his seat from a Democratic incumbent and won by 8 points in 2022.

In the special election held in February 2024, the Republican running for Santos’ seat lost by 8.

That’s a significant swing of 16 points for the Democratic candidate (the Republican lost their 8 point lead and instead, the Dem won by 8 points).  Therefore, the GOP House candidate for Santos’ seat underperformed by 16 points and lost.

In yesterday’s special election in Ohio, the Democratic challenger lost by 9.4 points in a deep, deep Red district where the Republican won his last election in 2022 by 30 points.  That is a swing of 20.6 points for the Democratic candidate.

Therefore, these two GOP candidates in special U.S. House elections to replace seats vacated by a Republican underperformed by an average of 18 points, a result that may have surprised many but does not bode well for Republicans in November.

Since the fall of last year, I have made three predictions:

  1. President Biden wins in November by a landslide.
  2. The Dems keep the Senate.
  3. The Dems take back the House, with a 15 to 20 seat majority.

My new prediction is that Speaker Johnson will be the House Minority Leader.  He only needs a majority of the GOP caucus to become Minority Leader, he does not need 217 votes on the floor of the U.S. House, that floor vote is only for the Speaker of the House, who will be Speaker Jeffries.

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