The Latest Conventional Wisdom on the House Speaker’s Race

As of October 15th, at just before noon in Washington, D.C., here is the consensus among operatives and lobbyists:

  1. Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) loses the floor vote.  It is scheduled for tomorrow at noon.
  2. No GOP Member of the House can get 217 votes from the GOP caucus.
  3. The Dems have been slow to negotiate seriously on intervening and supporting a Republican, and Republicans have been slow to pursue the option.  The bipartisan Speaker, or the Speaker elected with both GOP and Dem votes, has lost ground as a likely outcome.
  4. Unless a bipartisan coalition elects a Speaker with Democratic votes — and most now believe this to be unlikely — then the odds of the House GOP electing a Speaker this week seem extremely low.
  5. The idea of making the Speaker Pro Tem just the Speaker is unlikely because the Dems are against it, and changing the rules would need 217 Yes votes on the House floor, and there are not 217 Yes votes.
  6.  For my part, I continue to believe that a Speaker will be elected with Democratic votes, whether the Democrats or Republicans like it or not.

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