Oh, that: Research shows up to 45% of Young ObamaCare supporters will Drop their insurance when hit with a 45% Price Increase

Readers of this blog know that for many, many months, I have been writing about the effect of the ObamaCare premium price increases on the young and the healthy.

HHS released data targeting key segments of the health insurance market, and while it recognizes that the young are MUST HAVES for ObamaCare, because the young and healthy are needed pay premiums that will be used to off-set the crush of less healthy that will slam the health care system in 2014, HHS did not explain just how price sensitive the young and healthy are as a group.

Or, the willingness of ObamaCare supporters to pay the penalty instead of signing up. Here is what HHS either did not ask in it’s marketing survey, or decided not to share.

This is why this data is so profound, from Holtz-Eakin, writing in the Washington Times:

“in late March and early April of this year, when the American Action Forum sponsored the first national poll of this demographic, specifically testing what effects various premium increases would have on consumers’ willingness to purchase coverage. Respondents were those who already purchase insurance and had very specific information regarding their monthly premiums and the penalty they would pay if they failed to continue to buy insurance. They were also provided with the dollars they would have to fork over if premiums rose 10 percent, 20 percent or 30 percent.

The results are illuminating. In this group of current insurance purchasers, only 83 percent will still purchase if premiums rise 10 percent; 65 percent, if premiums rise 20 percent; and only 55 percent, if premiums rise 30 percent. The economic lesson is simple: As premiums rise, eventually, some consumers reach a price point at which they simply stop buying health insurance.

The policy lesson is twofold. First, a law intended to expand coverage will to some extent do exactly the opposite. Second, young Americans are exceedingly rational. If premiums rise 10 percent, 7 percent of those polled would pay the penalty, but then turn around and buy insurance (as the law dictates they must be permitted to do) if they got sick. The fraction rises to 11 percent and 20 percent for the larger premium hikes, respectively.

Choosing the penalty over insurance, or conveniently buying insurance (from the ambulance) just when it is needed, has been caricatured as responses only dreamed up by opponents of Obamacare. Not so, as it turns out. While the respondents are price-conscious consumers, they are not anti-Obamacare.”

Here are the price increases on the young and healthy under ObamaCare:

(Found at CNN here and the full story titled, “Who will pay higher premiums under ObamaCare? Young Men“)

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