I Am Still at, Dems Keep the House

So, there is an $850 limit Predictt has put on betting the Dems keep the U.S. House this November.

I know, because I have hit it.  I kept trying to buy “Dems keep the House” shares on Predictt because the price was so low until, I came across their limit.

So, what I am saying is, the view that the Dems keep the House is an outlier, er, not conventional wisdom — kinda a bit out there.

Regardless, here are some of my predictions and the reasons for my predictions:

  1. The Supreme Court Ruling on Abortion.  I believe it will throw abortion law back to each state to regulate.  This will mean each state can basically constrict the abortion aperture as they see fit, and many states will dial it down to such a significant degree, getting an abortion in another state is the only option.  Simply put, this will cause the suburbanite woman to pull a “Virginia” as they did in the VA gubernatorial race on the issue of education.  After the Supreme Court ruling, the pro-abortion groups will mobilize as they have never mobilized before.  And the suburbanite women will go full Karen.  This will be a key reason the Dems keep the House.
  2. Trump’s Nattering as the Nabob of Negativism on Fair Elections.  After Trump is indicted by multiple jurisdictions in the United States and after the Jan. 6th Committee in the U.S. House has completed its work (and hopefully recommends the Department of Justice indict Trump)  his ability to win Congressional seats will be vastly undermined and generally neutered.  Realizing that he cannot win enough seats for the GOP to take back the House, Trump decides that the risk of the GOP not winning is too great, so Trump pivots and begins to throw shade and cast doubt and be a wet blanket on the question of whether the mid-term elections are fair.  This way, he can say the GOP did not win because there was no election reform.  He can say his people did not vote, so if you want to win you have to pay attention to me.  With Trump, it’s always me, me, me, me.  And if Trump can’t be credited with taking back the House, then no one on the GOP side will — he will make sure that his supporters and Trump needs to be approached on bended knee, even if it means he will throw the House elections to the Dems.  Put another way, if Trump does not throw the Hosue elections and the GOP doesn’t take the House, Trump will be seen as a weak has-been (which he is) and that is the one thing worse for Trump than the Dems keeping the House.
  3. Dems Pull a Rabbit Out of the Hat, Buck History.  I know that recent American political history is crystal clear on this point — any first-term president, regardless of which party they are from, if their party has control of the U.S. House, their party loses the House in the first term mid-term elections.  It happens like clockwork, but for the year of the 9/11 attacks.  President Bush kept the U.S. House that year.   I guess what I am saying is that the issue of abortion and Trump’s attack on fair elections will equate to the political equivalent of 9/11 for the Dems, as far as control of the U.S. House goes.
  4. Redistricting of U.S. House Congressional Districts.  I agree with Charlie Cook, it’s a wash, there are no more Republican than Democratic advantages.
  5. Keeping the U.S. House does not mean Dems Win or Keep a 50/50 U.S. Senate.  The Supreme Court ruling on abortion will help the GOP win a majority in the Senate, because it will mobilize pro-life voters on a state-wide scale, negating the Dem advantage in urban and suburban districts.  Biden’s performance will also impact the Senate by helping the GOP.
  6. When the GOP Does Not Take Back the House, the House GOP Meltdown.  Under this scenario where the GOP does not take back the House, not only does McCarthy not become Speaker, but he loses his current job.  The GOP will be forced to accept that their embrace of the seditious bastard‘s claims about elections killed their’s — it’s called karmic blowback.  And it will be epic.
  7. Speaker Pelosi Steps Down as Speaker and Thus Continues the Rise of AOC and the Progressives.  The big winners of the GOP not keeping the House will be the power vacuum filled by progressives like AOC.  It will change many, many things on a cultural and political level for the United States.  Likely other moderate Dems will leave or be voted out of leadership positions in the U.S. House, to have their seats filled by younger more progressive Dems.
  8. The On-going Pandemic Breaks for Dems, Supremes Save Biden from Tough Mandate Politics and Virginia Saves the Dems from Lockdowns and School Closures.  The pandemic will continue with more vaccine-resistant variants this year, at least two more, in addition to Omicron, I predict.  (Here is a likely candidate, BA.2, an Omicron vaccine-resistant variant that has been found in the UK, Singapore, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and India.) The long grind will mean the public will want the Dems to be in charge on this issue, even as the Supreme Court protects the Dems from pandemic over-reach and bad political decisions.  Biden can say to his base on the vaccine mandate, “Hey, I tried,” but the Supremes stopped it.  Plus, the Dems have learned their lesson from the Virginia election and are loathe to lockdown ever again, nor will they support keeping children out of school again.   Watch what Mayor Adam does in NYC.  He is the new Dem bell-weather on the pandemic.  The notion that everyone will become infected is no longer a line in the sand and fighting words for most, unlike when I said nearly two years ago.  The bloom is definitely off the vaccine will save us rose as well, also, as I stated at the beginning of the pandemic.  So the go-to, knee-jerk Dem pandemic policies have worn out their welcome, but the urge to have the Dems in charge, notwithstanding these cultural changes regarding the majority view about the pandemic, will still be stronger than any desire by the public to have the GOP in charge of the response to the ongoing pandemic.

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