Generic Ballot Check: GOP + 6.0, Dems lose 50+ Seats

Now that the Democratic political and election types are telling Dems that ObamaCare is a big fat loser — agreeing with everything you’ve read here for the past 2 years — its time to see just how big a loser ObamaCare is for the Dems.

Right now, the average generic ballot shows the GOP has + 6.0 advantage.  Plus 6.0 is the generic ballot average of many different polls.  (Gallup, in an August 8-15 poll, has the GOP generic advantage at + 7.0.)

The www.fivethirtyeight.com algorithm predicts that at a + 6.0 GOP generic ballot advantage, the Dems lose 50 to 53  seats in the House.  Using Gallup’s + 7.0 GOP advantage, the algorithm predicts a loss of 60 U.S. House seats for the Dems.

Here is how to read the graph below, plug in the generic ballot vote along the x axis.

Then draw a vertical from the most current generic ballot number on the x axis.  The place where that vertical line intersects the diagonal blue line, is the number of seats the Dems will lose.

(To see what would happen if the Dems were at a plus 5.0 generic vote advantage, plug D + 5 along the x axis.)

But the Dems are not at D + 5.  The R’s are at + 6.0.

The Dems will lose control of the House and it will be the end of Speaker Pelosi.

The House leadership and the White House can continue to insist that ObamaCare has had nothing to do with their loss, but, it has already been exposed (by Dem political types) as more lies the elites have been telling themselves and the media.

The MSM, by the way, continues to ignore the sucking-chest-wound effect on ObamaCare on the Dems.

The MSM actually think that if they do not report it, it’s negative effect does not exist.  They are acting like arrogant children.

Generic ballot graph by fivethirtyeight.com

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