FireDogLake: House Vote Math Makes Getting to Yes Very Dicey
“Consider the math.
“I hadn’t remembered until CQ reminded me today that Robert Wexler (D-FL) resigned his post at the end of the year to become the head of a Jewish nonprofit group. Wexler was one of the 220 votes in favor of the House bill in November, with 215 opposed. Wexler’s replacement won’t be in place until April, but by then, Neil Abercrombie will have resigned to run for Governor in Hawaii.
“With respect to the Stupak amendment, at least two members, Bart Stupak and Republican Joseph Cao (R-LA), are definitely not going to vote for the bill if anything less than their amendment is included. Therefore, without even getting to the other major issues, the House is at 217-217 on the bill. Say Stupak is satisfied; Joseph Cao is NOT a reliable vote on the second pass. At BEST, you have 218 votes, without going into all the other flashpoints. So, any one member can blow up the bill.
“Maybe Nancy Pelosi can flip some of the no votes, especially with the more conservative Senate bill being the base, and the public option likely dead. But I have explained repeatedly that those Democrats who voted against the bill the first time around have every political incentive to vote against it again. Heck, the Larry Kissell poll from yesterday is enough to prove to people that voting no is the right political move, although I question both the poll and the logic behind that thinking. My point is that there will not be more than a small handful of no-to-yes flips available.”