Data Cracks Around the Conventional Wisdom that the Dems will Lose the House

One of my good friends who does election politics for a living pointed out in a presentation to a recent meeting of about 70 Executives assembled at their first in-person meeting in two years — that the presidential approval rating at the time of the election is the key indicator to watch to determine the outcome of the midterm elections.

So, I thought I should call this out from NBC, this AM:

Most Democrats fret about a midterm wipeout, but recent polling shows grounds for optimism. Bryan Bennett, a pollster for Navigator Research, a coalition of progressive pollsters, noted that something “weird” is happening in this political moment. Biden’s approval rating is hovering around 40%, which suggests that Republican victories in the November midterms will be not so much a wave as a “tsunami,” he said. And yet in polls pitting generic Democrats against Republicans in congressional races, Democrats perform better than expected given the president’s low standing. Indeed, since the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade, three polls came out showing Democrats leading Republicans by anywhere from 3 to 7 percentage points.

And on another matter but just as important — given how badly the GOP candidate H. Walker is in GA, specifically his ability to speak coherently –again from NBC:

And Republicans in some cases are putting forward candidates whom mainstream voters may find unpalatable. A video circulating on Twitter shows a recent debate among congressional Republican candidates in Wyoming, where some of Rep. Liz Cheney’s challengers struggle to form a coherent sentence.

“People are going to be stunned when they see some of the nominees they [Republicans] put out there,” said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic strategist.

Seriously, click on the Twitter link above, I watched it — oh, the horror.

Here is the link again, just to be sure you watch it.