After Pelosi’s Impeachment Took Out Biden, Senator Klobuchar’s Rise will Continue
Let me explain: wargaming the outcome, post-New Hampshire, led me to several surprising possibilities, including the continued rise of Senator Klobuchar.
First, let’s talk about Sanders.
To kick-off the DEMpire operations against Sanders, they spiked the last Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses because they did not like the results. Second, the “app crash,” — who us? No establishment Dems here, no-siree-Bob. Nope. Third, the refusal by Shadow to have the app tested for security flaws by DHS, as is done with all electronic voting machines and software — speaks volumes. Fourth, the fact that all the errors in counting votes in Iowa have been errors that lose Bernie votes — what? And fifth, the media’s relentless reporting that Mayor Pete was leading when Sanders was in fact ahead is simply disgusting.
Oh, and sixth, let’s not forget the start of the Senate impeachment process because Speaker Pelosi held on to the vaulted articles of impeachment, to delay the start of the trial to cause maximum damage to Sanders, by preventing him from campaigning in Iowa weeks before the caucuses.
All of these DEMpire tactics to oppress Sanders supporters will only harden their support and likely expand it.
I predict Sanders’ support will include a new class of “I’m-for-fair-play” supporters, as well as those who believe if the DEMpire hates Sanders this much, that since the DEMpire will go to these great lengths to stop him, that’s a good enough reason to be for him. Americans are not big on control freak elites. (We actually had a revolution over it.)
So, for these reasons and more, Sanders wins New Hampshire.
Senator Warren’s inability to tell the truth about key parts of her life — like did she send her son to a private school or not — has disqualified her. In addition, her Sanders-lite version of Sanders is not selling, when voters can have the real Sanders.
Finally, some of the women who are supporting Warren because they want to see a woman in the White House are drifting to Senator Klobuchar — seeing Senator Warren’s flaws impact Warren’s levels of support, which are declining. Backing a candidate on the way up is one thing, backing them on the way down is another matter altogether.
And regarding Warren, the Presidential primary has done its job, creating pressures that reveal who people are and how they act.
Therefore, Senator Warren will continue to fade. Her supporters will not go to Mayor Pete because of Team Warren’s great animosity towards Mayor Pete, both personally and policy-wise.
In the main, those Senator Warren supporters that do not back Senator Klobuchar will likely back Sanders, the closest ideological match.
That leaves former Vice President Biden and Mayor Pete.
Vice President Biden, regardless of what the DEMpire media reports, has been badly, fatally injured by the Trump impeachment process. Call it Newton’s law of an equal and opposite political reaction — or Karma — but it is clear that Pelosi, inadvertently or not, took out Biden with her impeachment of Trump and spectacular FAIL in the Senate.
Per, the Atlantic:
…according to an October Investor’s Business Daily poll, [the Hunter Biden issue] made 23 percent of Americans less likely to vote for Biden, and only 8 percent more likely to vote for him. A Hill-HarrisX poll that same month found that 54 percent of independents—and even 40 percent of Democrats—considered “Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine an important campaign issue that should be discussed.”
the Ukraine story is likely one reason that, according to a January Quinnipiac poll, he trails Bernie Sanders by nine points on the question of which Democratic presidential candidate is most honest…
Amazingly, impeachment appears to have hurt Biden more than Trump. Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi initiated the impeachment inquiry on September 24, Trump’s approval rating has generally risen. It stood at 40 percent in the first Gallup poll after Pelosi’s announcement. In Gallup’s latest survey, Trump stands at 49 percent. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, Trump’s rating dropped a bit during the first month of the impeachment fight but has climbed ever since, and is now almost 45 percent—nearly as high as it has been during his entire presidency. As Aaron Blake has pointed out in The Washington Post, Trump has also seen a spike in the intensity of his support, while the intensity of public opposition has declined. Since late October, according to a recent Washington Post–ABC News poll, the percentage of Americans who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance has jumped five points, while the percentage who strongly disapprove has fallen eight points.
I guess you could call Biden an impeachment friendly-fire casualty, to wit, Biden’s caucus support has declined to the point that Joe Biden will likely have zero — yes, zero — delegates coming out of Iowa.
And that Biden slide will continue in New Hampshire — notwithstanding the DEMpire media’s efforts in coordination with the DNC to stop the reporting of the outcome of the Iowa caucuses, or to attempt to create sympathy for Biden from widely reporting about his childhood stuttering.
Interestingly, the DNC Chair just called for a recount of the recently reported Iowa results, which show Sanders has won. Apparently, this is an attempt to stall the release of the official results past the New Hampshire primary. This is the seventh operation the DEMpire has run against Sanders is less than a week.
It is not like American voters do not understand that the DEMpire’s operations are to prop up Senator Biden — it is another reason why Biden will lose support in New Hampshire — his supporters are shady dirty tricksters. And to the extent that Mayor Pete is seen to benefit from these antics too, he will be hurt too.
And it’s unlikely that most of Biden’s supporters will go to Mayor Pete. Given the choice between a former small-town mayor and a U.S. Senator and former Vice President, Biden supporters picked Biden — they are with him likely in part because of his government experience — and will likely pivot to Senator Klobuchar over a small-town mayor.
The other reason that Mayor Pete will not make it out of New Hampshire is simple: Mayor Pete is a lightweight. He looks like an earnest staffer.
Put it another way, he was brought up from the minors to the majors too early.
Culturally, he pegs the needle hard over, past max. on the whiteness scale.
Mayor Pete is a really, really white guy. This brings up the other point, his lack of support with the non-white voters.
Finally, on top of all that, the main reason why Mayor Pete did so well in Iowa was that 58% of the mid-west Iowa voters who turned out on caucus night, were women.
If you listen to Mayor Pete’s Iowa “victory” speech, you can tell that the chanting of his name is by a crowd of mostly women. Just look at the number of women behind him — it is more than 85% women.
There will be no 58% turnout by mid-west women deep in the New England state of New Hampshire.
The mid-west Iowa white women bump for Mayor Pete will not exist, no matter how much the DEMpire tries to tank Sanders, and prop up Mayor Pete by falsely reporting he won Iowa.
Mayor Pete is a great talker, he just does not have the experience to back it up.
For those who want a moderate and not a Sanders, then they will probably keep their donations in their pocket until after Super Tuesday since Bloomberg is not asking for money. This restraint on donations to Mayor Pete will begin to bite after New Hampshire.
Either in New Hampshire or after Nevada, Mayor Pete’s supporters, once they leave, won’t go to old-Washington Biden, and they won’t go to Sanders or Warren.
Therefore, given the foregoing, Senator Klobuchar’s rise will continue as the moderate Dem voter’s best remaining option.
It occurs to me that if Bloomberg and Sanders are left standing after Super Tuesday, and over time it becomes clear that Bloomberg cannot win the Dem nomination — then Bloomberg has two options: first, back Sanders.
Is Bloomberg’s dislike of Trump less than his dislike of Sanders — assuming he thinks Sanders can win? But Bloomberg doesn’t think Sanders can win against Trump, that’s the key reason Bloomberg entered the primary.
Therefore, if Bloomberg is faced with backing Sanders (and watching, Bloomberg believes, Trump win) then can Bloomberg run as an independent? Would he?
Is that why all his campaign staff have contracts that go through November?