A Review of My Predictions of what’s Coming for the Remainder of 2022
- Europe this month will be in a solid fifth wave of Covid-19, which will be made up of BA.4 and BA.5 — both of which are as contagious as Omicron, both of which has further mutated to build immunity evasion (to escape both vaccine and natural immunity) and has hospitalization rates similar to Alpha and Delta.
- The United States will be the BA.4 and BA.5 wave late this month, as well. The U.S. wave is building now.
- North Korea is the most dangerous variant breeding ground in the world. Expect a devastating variant from North Korea to go global in the fall-winter 2022.
Russia and Ukraine:
- Putin will be dead by Labor Day.
- Russia’s offensive is unsustainable, but has achieved about a third of their objectives. However, once their tempo of operations expends their ammunition and troops, these limited victories will stop.
- Russia will then gradually lose the Ukrainian territory it gained.
- The end game will be a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
Mid-term Elections in the U.S.:
- Trump’s inspired divisions within the GOP will prevent them from winning the Senate back.
- The Dems will achieve a majority large enough in the U.S. Senate to repeal the filibuster.
- Trump inspired non-voters (either because GOP voters will not vote for a Trump backed candidate, or alternatively, because Trump voters will not vote for a non-Trump backed candidate) the net result will be the same: about 5% of GOP voters stay home and Dems keep the U.S. House, and expand their control in the U.S. Senate.
- The Jan. 6 Hearings have only deepened the Trump divisions in the GOP.
- Sending the issue of abortion to the states will be a net plus for the Dems in U.S. House races, net negative for Dems in the U.S. Senate, but the Trump inspired chaos in key Senate races will swamp and overwhelm any advantage the GOP earns from abortion.
[…] This is why I have been predicting the Dems will hold the House and the Senate after the mid-terms. […]