What Happens When You Put a Community Organizer in Charge of One Sixth of the U.S. Economy?
There are two key actuarial facts, and one political fact — all of which are unknown now — that will tell the future of ObamaCare.
First the actuarial facts:
How many people have paid their first premium and therefore (for now) can be counted as enrolled?
How many of those people are young and/or healthy, vs. how many have chronic or serious health conditions?
These are the only two questions that matter for the actuarial survival of ObamaCare.
Next, it’s political survival depends on whether ObamaCare can insure more people than it caused to be uninsured, by forcing their policies to be cancelled.
These are relatively basic, simple facts.
They are also facts, not surprisingly, the Obama administration will not release.
This means only one thing, the facts are bad and don’t fit the “it’s all going to be OK,” narrative, or my favorite, “once people start receiving the benefits of ObamaCare, it’s popularity will increase.”
The fact is that ObamaCare increases health care costs and gives Americans fewer choice.
How exactly is that a politically popular law? And how will it ever be popular?
But one thing is certain, the liberals will continue to tell themselves fairy tales about health care that fits their narrative, a narrative that defies all applications of actuarial science or basic political facts — facts that have remained unchanged for years. But the liberal narrative of ObamaCare lives on, regardless of how much hard reality of it’s failure is widescreen for all to see.
Obama has lost 23 points in his approval rating among Hispanics and nine points among Blacks. Here is some more hard reality, expressed in the loss of approval rating for Obama in various subgroups, from Gallup: