Hennessey Revises his Odds for Passage of a Health Bill

As of a week ago, my odds put failure of the health bill at 70%, passage at 30%.  They have not changed.

Here are Keith Hennessey’s predictions, who was Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council, a position now held by Dr. Larry Summers for President Obama:

“I am lowering from 60% to 50% my projection for the success of comprehensive health care reform.

  1. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the regular Senate process with 60, leading to a law; (was 40% -> 30%)
  2. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the reconciliation process with 51 Senate Democrats, leading to a law; (steady at 20%)
  3. Fall back to a much more limited bill that becomes law; (was 20% -> 15%)
  4. No bill becomes law this Congress.  (was 20% -> 35%)

I think there is zero chance a bill makes it to the President’s desk before 2010.”

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