54 GOP to 46 Dem is how I see the 2014 Mid-term Senate Spliting
In a typical fashion of making politically provocative comments to rile up conservatives and red state Americans, the White House said in anticipation of huge losses in the mid-term election, that the results will not force a change in his policies or approach. To Obama, the results of the elections don’t matter: “White House aides said President Obama won’t change his leadership style because the contests in red states don’t represent a ‘true national election’.”
Just for historic clarity, here is what Michael Barone wrote today about the state of the House Dems after six years of the Obama Presidency: “When Obama took the oath of office in January 2009, there were 257 Democrats in the House of Representatives. Going into this election there are 201 (including two vacant Democratic seats).”
During Bush’s six year mid-term election, the GOP lost 19 House seats. Prior to Obama’s six-year mid-term elections, Obama has lost almost three times more House seats than Bush, and Obama is poised to lose even more today — and control of the Senate to boot.
Essentially, Obama is poised to do to the Senate Dems what he has already done to the House Dems.
Here are my predictions for the Senate races today. We should know the results of most of these races by 10:00 PM tonight. If NH goes to Brown, as I predict, it’s clear that most of my other predictions will hold up.
*Kansas goes to the GOP if Roberts or Orman wins, since Orman says he’ll caucus with the Majority party in the Senate.
**With or without a run-off. In Georgia and Louisiana, if one candidate does not win a majority, there is a run-off election. In Louisiana the run-off is in December and in Georgia, it’s in January 2015.